Elections 2011 – The devil is in the data

Research company Ipsos Markinor said yesterday that results of its latest poll showed the ANC winning at least 52% of the votes cast and possibly another 10% from people who were still uncertain when the survey was done.

Ipsos Markinor spokesman Mari Harris said the DA was assured of 17% of the vote, with another 9% possible.

Even the best-case result for the ANC would represent a significant drop from the 66.35% the party won in the last local government elections in 2006.

The DA's 17% share would be well up on the 14.8% it won in 2006, but only slightly up on the combined DA and Independent Democrats poll of 16.8%.

Interesting stats these because then of course there’s the IFP, Cope and “others”.

POPULATION

South Africa is a nation of diversity, with 49.99-million people and a variety of cultures, languages and religious beliefs.

According to Statistics South Africa's mid-2010 estimates, the country's population stands at 49 991 300 people.

Africans are in the majority at 39 682 600, making up 79.4% of the total population.

The white population is estimated at 4 584 700 (9.2%), the Coloured population at 4 424 100 (8.8%) and the Indian/Asian population at 1 299 900 (2.6%).

Against the SA population this means that if politics were as racially divided as everyone with a soapbox claims then 80% of the black population votes “black” and 20% votes white?

That is if a full Coloured and Indian vote went to the DA? Which it patently doesn’t...

It must be accepted that a portion of the white, Coloured and Indian/Asian population vote ANC.

Fully 9%, of the total DA voters according any stat you want to gander or complain about or pooh, pooh or ridicule or deny or pretend doesn’t exist, or more specifically, a full 50% of the total DA vote is black according to our national stats.

There is simply no way that the DA can be termed a “white” political party.

40% of DA MP’s are “black” and 30% of the national leadership.

Now before we go off with yadda, yadda, blah, blah DA sponsored acolyte, white supremacist etc, spare a thought for my feelings.

I don’t vote DA and I also have a tad too much rhythm to be all white?

This also isn’t a political column although the topic is political.

The column is about data.

Never mind, I find it interesting that heading into the Municipal elections that the ANC Provincial Leadership including Chairperson, Deputy Chairperson, Secretary, Deputy Secretary and Treasurer makes up a total of 45 positions with maybe 3 lower positions (Deputy Secretary) occupied by whites with 0 in the top 27 posts.

There are perhaps 4 whites out of 99 members of the ANC NEC and perhaps as many coloured.

We have 0 white leaders at Provincial level in the ANC.

I counted no whites on the ANC National Working Committee and 3 Coloured/Indian/Asian out of 31.

Look lets give or take a few, that’s not the point, the point is if we want proportional representation then based on national stats we should have an ANC NEC with at least 20% white, Coloured and Indian/Asian represented, no?

I guess the DA can’t quite shake their “white” party credentials but there is also absolutely no way the ANC can shake their “black” party credentials.

My question is, are we a polarised society and if so, who is polarising who and who is fooling who in the process?

Do whites own too much land proportionately, absolutely, are they occupying too many Managerial positions proportionately, absolutely, are they being politically marginalised by the ANC, definitely.

Where do the Coloured and Indian/Asian populace fit in?

Well since 1994, nowhere really when you consider their influence over time within the structures is waning.

During the 49^th National Conference 30% of the ANC NEC comprised “other races”, of the 18 appointed to the NWC, 5 were “other races”.

GCIS shows 21 of 59 Leaders between 1994 and today were “other races”.

By any standards the “other races” are being squeezed out of decision making politics.

Data is suggesting that the politics of survival is making the DA more proportionately representative and the ANC more exclusive, racially that is.

In the end there is no doubt delivery will play a role in voter behaviour.

Judging from the current policy, cronyism and nepotism within the ranks of the ANC, the ANC is marginalising itself and doesn’t need any help from the opposition.

MID-YEAR POPULATION ESTIMATES 2010
Population group	Number	% of total
African	39 682 600	79.4%
White	4 584 700	9.2%
Coloured	4 424 100	8.8%
Indian/Asian	1 299 900	2.6%
TOTAL	49 991 300	100%

Source: Statistics South Africa

From triumph of Invictus to intolerant zot

The modern communication age might be a modern evil, to good, but it also serves as a modern evil to evil.

I just can't get myself to watch the zot movie on TV came the plaintive cry across my Facebook page.

The message vibrated at my elbow through my Blackberry as I sat with family wrapped in the warmth of a fire in my lounge while the cold licked impotently at the door.

My family and I settled down to watch Invictus.

How appropriate then that Nelson Mandela’s role in the 1995 RWC should be playing out in front of me at the precise moment racism reared its head on my Facebook page.

The role of technology in modern communication is evolving at a pace that outstrips our common sense.

I deeply suspect that humanity has no clue how modern communication technology exposes the soft political underbelly and that the world’s leaders are being caught asleep as a dragon awakes.

A dragon that is so powerful it is capable of unseating Dictators more surgically and swiftly than a multitude of guided missiles.

There is a deluge of protest against oppression and yet in the deluge against oppression by all sides there is an unwavering determination to oppress.

There is a pervasive fear of Government, people in Government are in disagreement with Government, yet they appear to remain silent. There is a perception of persecution for dissention.

Ideas are trampled, any ideas, to the extent that nothing, seems to make sense and a pervasive partisan intolerance to idea, pervades cyber space.

The internet is a quagmire of rhetoric and propaganda. It is flooded with political gamesmanship and agenda, so much so that groups or individuals seem to gravitate toward stereotype.

Any dissention seems to instantly, be reduced to racial ideology, irrespective of merit from all sides, creating a perception of absolute and massive polarisation.

There is an overriding sense that, on practically every platform, public opinion is being driven by the State, with an all out attack on a free press.

There are literally millions of comments and complaints, that there isn’t any accountability, with convicted murderers even arguing just because you're convicted in a court room, doesn't mean you're guilty of something.

Cyber space is awash with Government being accused of lies, massive lies, repeated over and over again by our leaders, from the arms deal, HIV&Aids denial to the ArcelorMittal deal and so on.

Government is accused of not doing what it said it would do, or what it said it intended to do.

In an instant cyber space brought me polarization, in the triumph of Invictus and intolerant zot.

Are we to assume, that our leadership are simply grossly incompetent and clueless, to this chaos?

I think not, I think our leaders are infinitely more astute than what we give them credit for.

It is their strategies that are failing that they can’t grasp. It is their studies in the Science of Politics and who they choose to admire and follow, that has brought us to where we are.

Napoleon said after all, “Among those who dislike oppression are many who like to oppress and that men are moved by two levers only: fear and self interest.”

Napoleon also said “four hostile newspapers are more to be feared, than a thousand bayonets and in politics... never retreat, never retract... never, admit a mistake.

It was Josef Stalin who said “Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas?”

Hitler said “The broad masses of a population are more amenable, to the appeal of rhetoric , than to any other force and make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually, they will believe it.

It was Saddam Hussein who said “politics is when you say you are going to do one thing while intending to do another. Then you do, neither what you said, nor what you intended.”

Charles Manson, “Just because you're convicted in a court room, doesn't mean you're guilty of something.”

Finally Joseph Goebbels, “It is the absolute right of the State, to supervise the formation of public opinion”.

Sound familiar? It should.

Modern communication technology has come to reflect in its purest form, everything that defines the human race and serves up a meal, best consumed sans napkin and with bare hands and, which in all its vulgarity exposes the bone.

Our leadership doesn’t seem to be cognisant of the fact that their heroes, the ones they studied, they learned from and admire and choose to emulate, are exposed.

They seem oblivious to the fact, that while they may attack us, with clubs and guns and faster than the speed of sound,  we, the people, are capable of rallying to defend ourselves at the speed of light.

iWeek Magazine 

Discombobulated

Discombobulated inside out

I find this week’s column almost impossible to write.

My brief is to write about anything I like as long as what I write is related to the IT environment.

Well truthfully the IT environment at the moment is about as interesting or sexy as a babe in a nightie wearing smelly vellies.

The local elections are here, Julias Malema is arguing in court he actually loves me, Winnie just called the court illiterate and with that pronouncement one assumes the Judge presiding as well.

A man is beaten and shot at point blank range by rubber or hard nose ammunition, it matters not a jot which, he is dead, by a pack of ill disciplined cowards masquerading as police in the full glare of the media.

The policemen are condemned by Government and at the same time, so are the media who reported the act. In fact the media are to be or have been reported for offending sensitive viewers.

George Louca, accused of murdering Lolly Jackson has surfaced and been giving interviews, Tony Ehrenrich is nominated as Cape Town candidate for Mayor by the ANC and threatens to bring charges of corruption against the DA led council for building bicycle lanes in affluent suburbs.

Manyi has me more discombobulated than my neutered worsie.

He is recently reported as being unapologetic regarding his racist stance regarding the coloureds in the Western Cape, while an apology for his racist stance was preferred ostensibly on his behalf by the Government spokesman.

The ANCYL led by the leadership (read Julius) were on their way to campaign for the local government elections outside Gatcha’s house?

Mbalula is calling Asmal’s current contribution to popular discourse “rumblings of a raving lunatic”. 

Asmal also refers to “some” in the current ANC leadership as having “slithered from under stones” and Manuel likens others as being in the league of Adolf Hitler. (iWeekWednesday, 13 April 2011)

I ask you with tears in my eyes.

This is juicy stuff.

I must ignore probably the most skinner filled period in our political history and “keep it IT”.

Ok, here goes nothing, I’ll try.

Winnie said outside the court today at the Julias Malema hearing Malema was there not just as youth league leader, but as the ANC's representative.

Malema thanked the crowd and said he could not speak about what was said in court as it was "used inside". 

He urged the crowd to remain disciplined "so we don't give enemies anything to talk about".

Let me get this straight, what’s being said by Malema “inside” is that what he’s saying “outside” isn’t what he says “inside”.

Malema can’t speak outside about what’s said inside because what he says outside gets used inside.

However what Malema is saying inside about what he’s saying outside (kill the boer) "so we don't give enemies anything to talk about” does not translate.

Patently the people inside are the enemy inside out.

Confused? Never mind spare a thought for me.

The only thing I know is how little I do know. I learned to read from a newspaper while sitting on my grandpa's lap. I was given my first children's book, a second hand one at that, by my sister on my seventh birthday. I have a natural predilection for fact over fiction.

I am essentially an objectivist as a consequence of my youthful deprivation more by default than design. Objectivism (disambiguation) holds that reality exists quite independent of consciousness and that perception can lead you to attaining objective knowledge.

Perception can lead you to attaining objective knowledge through the process of concept formation and inductive and deductive logic.

The process of concept formation and inductive and deductive logic of objectivism leads to the conclusion that the moral purpose of the individual is the pursuit of individual happiness or self interest.

The only social system consistent with this morality is the system that upholds complete respect for individual rights.

Consequently as a victim of my circumstance and accidental disciple of logic there is in the reference by Winnie to the illiteracy of the Judiciary - which she will deny she meant, and Malema’s reference to the enemy, which logic dictates is the people he refers to in his song - a deep rooted contempt and total disrespect for individual rights.

It is not what is being said inside the court that will dictate the outcome of the hate speech trial and not what some supporters of (kill the boer) mean when they sing the song, but what Malema means when he speaks outside about singing it.

Malema is constantly quoted as saying he only bears reference to the armed struggle, not a call to violence.

It is the Transvaal Agricultural Union of SA “inside” the court Mr. Malema you don’t want to give “outside” something to talk about “inside”, the Boer, the enemy in the "so we don't give enemies anything to talk about”

I for one am left with absolutely no illusion regarding what Malema means or what he wants.

I just wish he’d stop flip flopping and come right out with it.

As for the protester murdered in cold blood by a gang of thugs in full view of the media, not allegedly, definitely, I am astounded by the speed with which the matter has been investigated on the eve of a Municipal election.

Colonel Sam Makhele, the spokesperson for the Free State police commissioner, said that deaths in police hands were rare. "It's unfortunate that someone lost his life, but it is an isolated incident," he said. "We've never experienced such a thing in the province."

But according to the ICD's annual report, in the Free State seven suspects died while they were being arrested and 47 died as a result of police action or in police custody.

The Independent Complaints Directorate (ICD), according to its 2010 annual report, investigated 1 769 cases of people dying in police custody or as a result of police action.

Farmers are being murdered in their hundreds, thousands in fact have been murdered or shall we say they haven’t?

The police statistics in the 2010 annual report show deaths from police action or custody have doubled over the previous year. 1769 civilians died at the hands of police or in their custody.

Manyi wants coloureds to spread themselves thin, to migrate, to make way for blacks, to promote representivity I don’t think so, its about absolute power.

Oh man it doesn’t take me, the courts, the alliance partners or the media to tell the ruling party it’s making an absolute knob of itself.

Or that the second coming of Christ may be here sooner than some think if they don’t get their act together.

Now back to the IT slant to my column, I’ve run out of space, my editor has run out of deadline and all I can offer is that I wrote my column on a Toshiba Qosmio I bought from a chap emigrating for a song.

It’s quite wonderful really but for all its glitz and glamour it needs a R150 cooling pad or will fry your nuts if you use it as a “lap”top.

Kill the boer

Watching the Julias Malema hate speech trial I was drawn back to a film I watched a while back called Stop Loss.

Probably filmed by some psuedo lefty tree hugging beatnik as their contribution to protesting the IRAQ war.

A film that ends with the concientious objector finally realising the futility of objecting?

I caught myself muttering "Blow me bitch" and reciting a mantra I wrote some time "seems like an eternity" ago that goes something like this.

In the name of solidarity justice and peace
laws are imposed by Politicians
and jeers hurled from crowds to force the unwilling to become more willing.

On the eve of one victory and anothers defeat
The Politicians shout
NO MORE.
While some people celebrate while others weep

How soon you forget the young old men walking in shock
Down your impersonal streets.

In South Africa wages a war bitter sweet
Fanned by the winds of political deciet.

Away are young men sent to fight their brethren in vain
While Politicians offer up their prayers for their pain.

I pack away my parachute and lay down my gun.
Never again to jump from the sun.
My duty to God AND country is done.

Where is my childhood
Where is my youth
Be still young man
Your eyes hide the truth.

- FINI

Well it went something like that. I never kept the diatribe filed anywhere I just committed it to memory but it seldom changes much in the reciting when I regurgitate it.

I wrote it at a time when I decided there'd been enough bloodshed.

Now I'm neither bitter nor sad.

Matter of fact.

I'm just a tad pissed off.

I'm pissed off that my fourteen year old wants to know if I've killed anyone.

As if this will add some lustre to my life or make me out to be a bigger man.

Maybe he needs to think, continue anyway that I'm larger than life.

Is it possible that I can even after all these years be defined by my actions as a young impressionable man that at the time quite literally didn't know shit from shinola?

The fact is while I never saw a bullet of mine kill a man, I served with the best my country had to offer and saw active duty and combat on more than one occassion.

Nobody crossed my gunsights in the fury of battle I could take down before someone else did.

But I participated and witnessed first hand the violence and the immediate aftermath of a terrible war.

Here's the rub.

I know what dead people look like.

I've seen enough for 100 lifetimes.

I don't have bad dreams or nightmares much anymore although I do ever so often grind my teeth so loud I wake myself up.

I am not a purist or a pacifist.

But my God when I look at my son I know, I just know I am a humanist.

I am not afraid of war.

I am afraid of dying though.

I need to live to guide my loved ones, to be there for them.

That is the part about dying that frightens me the most.

Not being able to whisper tolerance, patience, and the other mantra that means so much more than just a cliche' from a plaque on a wall "God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the strenght to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference."

Today as I look to our country I am left with a cold feeling in my heart and a sense of deep foreboding.

It is something I simply cannot shake.

Perhaps after all I am a negative human and not a patriot.

Perhaps I am ungrateful or a racist because I see so much more injustice than what I'd hoped for when I lay down my arms?

But the taunts are back and so are the the supplications "in the name of solidarity, justice and peace".

Bring me my machine gun by in all likelihood my new President is what I have to look forward to.

While this may be fobbed off as simply a rallying cry from a bitter past it is the very nature of the words that keep me awake thinking. 

As we slide inexorably toward our next election, people will die.

People are dying.

The machine gun bit is not rhetoric from a distant bitter past.

It is a mantra that is taken quite literally by many and is being carried by many in their hearts.

The exact same applies to the words in a song that suggest "shoot the boer" in a modern South African context.

Do I expect Uhuru in South Africa?

No.

But I see more bloodshed and more disregard for the rule of law.

I see injustice and intollerance creeping like a cancer through an otherwise impotent country.

The words we will kill for this and we will kill for that is a constant reminder that there are men in this world that will not let me live in peace.

I find myself looking at my son wondering how he would shape up in a firefight and feel the horror well in my throat.

I look at myself and know I am still quite capable.

I wonder why I am thinking like that?

I wonder why or even if I should?

I don't like being threatened and I don't like being pushed around.

I wonder if the people stepping up their rhetoric leading up to a supposedly "democratic" election realise what they are saying, what the ramifications, the implications, the realities of what they espouse and seek are?

I wonder if they can vaguely understand hate, deep rooted hate, the kind of hate that stems from vengeance, the kind of vengeance that comes from having your loved ones attacked and killed simply because they or you had an opposing ideology or world view?

It is something that simmers and seethes and consumes and will, oh it certainly will rupture like a festering sore.

So while I have packed away a parachute and laid down a gun and vowed never again to jump from the sun it seems my duty to country, not God is done.

I am not a priest, I am not even particularly pious or religious.

I am not particularly political.

"I am a man. I consider nothing humane indifferent to me" – Socrates

I do believe in my given duty to be a protector.

To those people out there who are shouting their taunts and rattling their sabres I say quite simply.

I ain't a puppy.

Blow me bitch!

I object!!!!

I am a conscientious objector, who might, just might kill you right back and teach my kids how to kill yours too!

Be careful what you wish for.

I too sang songs, songs I remember vividly.

Songs that will offend and disgust, songs that left the listener under no illusion what was meant.

Songs I will never sing again, because they are hurtful and an incitement to hate and distrust.

The emancipation of one does not equate into the prejudice of another.

Freedom for all means peace, tolerance and a respect for the dignity of all.

To justify singing "kill" anyone for whatever reason in South Africa, is simply a means to gloat for some and in so doing a means to inflict wounds on the soul of others.

That is not conducive to creating a prosperous future.

That is the recipe for a future built on spite and resentment.

You can call it anyway you want.

I call it the basis for instilling hate.

Hate speech if you must