Elections 2011 – The devil is in the data

Research company Ipsos Markinor said yesterday that results of its latest poll showed the ANC winning at least 52% of the votes cast and possibly another 10% from people who were still uncertain when the survey was done.

Ipsos Markinor spokesman Mari Harris said the DA was assured of 17% of the vote, with another 9% possible.

Even the best-case result for the ANC would represent a significant drop from the 66.35% the party won in the last local government elections in 2006.

The DA's 17% share would be well up on the 14.8% it won in 2006, but only slightly up on the combined DA and Independent Democrats poll of 16.8%.

Interesting stats these because then of course there’s the IFP, Cope and “others”.

POPULATION

South Africa is a nation of diversity, with 49.99-million people and a variety of cultures, languages and religious beliefs.

According to Statistics South Africa's mid-2010 estimates, the country's population stands at 49 991 300 people.

Africans are in the majority at 39 682 600, making up 79.4% of the total population.

The white population is estimated at 4 584 700 (9.2%), the Coloured population at 4 424 100 (8.8%) and the Indian/Asian population at 1 299 900 (2.6%).

Against the SA population this means that if politics were as racially divided as everyone with a soapbox claims then 80% of the black population votes “black” and 20% votes white?

That is if a full Coloured and Indian vote went to the DA? Which it patently doesn’t...

It must be accepted that a portion of the white, Coloured and Indian/Asian population vote ANC.

Fully 9%, of the total DA voters according any stat you want to gander or complain about or pooh, pooh or ridicule or deny or pretend doesn’t exist, or more specifically, a full 50% of the total DA vote is black according to our national stats.

There is simply no way that the DA can be termed a “white” political party.

40% of DA MP’s are “black” and 30% of the national leadership.

Now before we go off with yadda, yadda, blah, blah DA sponsored acolyte, white supremacist etc, spare a thought for my feelings.

I don’t vote DA and I also have a tad too much rhythm to be all white?

This also isn’t a political column although the topic is political.

The column is about data.

Never mind, I find it interesting that heading into the Municipal elections that the ANC Provincial Leadership including Chairperson, Deputy Chairperson, Secretary, Deputy Secretary and Treasurer makes up a total of 45 positions with maybe 3 lower positions (Deputy Secretary) occupied by whites with 0 in the top 27 posts.

There are perhaps 4 whites out of 99 members of the ANC NEC and perhaps as many coloured.

We have 0 white leaders at Provincial level in the ANC.

I counted no whites on the ANC National Working Committee and 3 Coloured/Indian/Asian out of 31.

Look lets give or take a few, that’s not the point, the point is if we want proportional representation then based on national stats we should have an ANC NEC with at least 20% white, Coloured and Indian/Asian represented, no?

I guess the DA can’t quite shake their “white” party credentials but there is also absolutely no way the ANC can shake their “black” party credentials.

My question is, are we a polarised society and if so, who is polarising who and who is fooling who in the process?

Do whites own too much land proportionately, absolutely, are they occupying too many Managerial positions proportionately, absolutely, are they being politically marginalised by the ANC, definitely.

Where do the Coloured and Indian/Asian populace fit in?

Well since 1994, nowhere really when you consider their influence over time within the structures is waning.

During the 49^th National Conference 30% of the ANC NEC comprised “other races”, of the 18 appointed to the NWC, 5 were “other races”.

GCIS shows 21 of 59 Leaders between 1994 and today were “other races”.

By any standards the “other races” are being squeezed out of decision making politics.

Data is suggesting that the politics of survival is making the DA more proportionately representative and the ANC more exclusive, racially that is.

In the end there is no doubt delivery will play a role in voter behaviour.

Judging from the current policy, cronyism and nepotism within the ranks of the ANC, the ANC is marginalising itself and doesn’t need any help from the opposition.

MID-YEAR POPULATION ESTIMATES 2010
Population group	Number	% of total
African	39 682 600	79.4%
White	4 584 700	9.2%
Coloured	4 424 100	8.8%
Indian/Asian	1 299 900	2.6%
TOTAL	49 991 300	100%

Source: Statistics South Africa